Friday, September 15, 2006

Appraisals Get Tricky in a Cooling Market

The housing slowdown is making it increasingly difficult for appraisers to use comparable sales data in calculating a home's worth.
Gary Crabtree of Bakersfield, Calif.-based Affiliated Appraisers says he now takes into account pending sales, current list prices, supply and demand, time on the market, price fluctuations, defaults and trustee's sales, incentives, and the market perceptions of real estate agents.

Crabtree says valuations become complicated when real estate practitioners engage in "the re-list game," in which a home that has sat unsold for a long period of time is removed from the multiple listing service and re-listed with a new price and MLS code to make it look like a new listing.

"Just looking at historical data can be perilous," says Appraisal Institute spokesman John Bredemeyer, who explains, "You've got to answer the question: 'Where are we in this cycle?' And you've got to factor that into your valuation."
Source: Baltimore Sun, Ken Harney (09/15/06)

Prevent Foreclosure From Cashing You Out Of Home Ownership

While a growing number of consumers are looking to cash in on the changing real estate market, another group is trying to figure out how to keep from cashing out.

The 115,292 homes nationwide entering some stage of foreclosure in August remains historically low, but the rate of increase in the number is becoming alarming. August foreclosures represented a 24 percent increase from July -- the second highest this year -- foreclosures are up 38 percent for the year so far and 53 percent compared to where they were this time last year.

Blame it on those nasty mortgage IEDs (Improvised Equity Devices) -- high leverage, high risk loans that are easy to come by, but financially explosive as time goes by.
Mortgage IEDs are typically ARMs, in a host of varieties, that typically start off with low rates, but, in this market, continually adjust upward. Along with the higher interest rate, so goes your monthly mortgage payment.

When the loans come with interest-only payment terms, if you only pay the interest and your home value shrinks, your mortgage could become larger than your home's value giving you no room to bail out without coming up with the cash to cover the difference.
"With home price appreciation continuing to decelerate and billions of dollars in adjustable rate mortgages projected to reset in the next few months, this month's increase could be the beginning of an upward shift in the foreclosures market," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.

In August, states with both greater statistically significant numbers of homes entering foreclosure and high rates of increases in those numbers, included Colorado, Nevada and Florida.

Colorado foreclosure activity spiked nearly 60 percent in August from the previous month and the state documented the nation's highest state foreclosure rate for the sixth month in a row, with one new foreclosure filing for every 301 households. The state reported 6,079 properties entering some stage of foreclosure during the month, more than twice the number reported in August 2005 and the seventh highest number reported by any state.

With one new foreclosure filing for every 430 households, Nevada posted the nation's second highest state foreclosure rate for the third straight month, due largely to bad bets on housing made in and around Las Vegas. The state reported 2,016 properties entering some stage of foreclosure, a 24 percent increase from the previous month and more than three times the number reported in August 2005.

Once crawling with speculators who are now abandoning the Sunshine State, Florida saw foreclosure activity jump to its highest level of the year so far, with 16,533 properties entering some stage of foreclosure in August -- the most of any state and an increase of more than 50 percent from the previous month. The state's foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 442 households ranked as the nation's third highest state foreclosure rate.
Five states, Florida, Texas, California, Ohio and Illinois accounted for 50 percent of the nation's foreclosure activity in August.

What should you do if you face the possibility of a late mortgage payment for the first time and want to avoid foreclosure?
Swallow your pride.

A head-in-the-sand approach will leave what's likely your No. 1 asset exposed to foreclosure. Contact the lender and discuss what you can do. Your goal should be to stop any lender action that could damage your credit and ultimately cost you your home and prevent you from owning another one in the immediate future.

A Freddie Mac/Roper survey found that 75 percent of delinquent borrowers recall being contacted by their mortgage servicer -- the company (the lender or the lender's agent) that collects mortgage payments, but 68 percent of them never call back.
Given most lenders take months before moving to foreclose, you have ample time to seek some kind of work out.

Once you make contact with your lender or servicer in a return call or a call you initiated, stay in touch with that contact until you are current. Document your contacts in writing so you and the lender have a documented record of your efforts.

If possible, consider restructuring or refinancing your loan -- but not to borrow more money. If you are saddled with two mortgages, do the math to determine if consolidating them will help. Likewise consolidate non-mortgage debts. Also consider extending a 15 year mortgage to 30 years or a 30 year mortgage to 40 years or longer. Examine how any restructured debt will play out if your situation worsens or improves. In each case, determine if restructuring is your best move, preferably before you miss a payment and damage your chances of landing a new loan.
Watch out for scams. When you are down on your dollars you are most vulnerable to debt-removal come-ons. You likely didn't get in over your head over night. Don't expect a quick fix.
Get financial counseling. Certified (by state and federal agencies and recognized trade groups) consumer credit counseling services are often free or offered for only a nominal fee. They will teach you your rights and work with you and your creditors, say, to temporarily reduce payments or otherwise work out a payment plan that will keep you housed and your credit relatively intact.

Know your rights. If you are in the military, you have special relief under the Soldiers and Sailors Civil Relief Act to stop the foreclosure and you may be eligible for a reduction in the interest rate. Similar relief is available to those affected by hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters.

Procedural errors in the lender's foreclosure effort or lender errors when you acquired the loan could permit you to file a lawsuit to enjoin or stop the procedure.

If all else fails, bankruptcy is an option that can stop foreclosure, at least temporarily, and give you some leverage to resolve the foreclosure. Today's bankruptcy law also forces you into counseling. That's a good thing.

Selling the property is another end-game option. Consider selling the property out right as quickly as possible or deeding it to the lender in exchange for ending the foreclosure and minimizing the negative comments on your credit report.
Published: September 15, 2006

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Realtors expect home prices to fall

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home prices will probably fall temporarily as the housing market corrects, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Prices should bounce higher in a few months, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group "as the market works through a build in housing inventory."

Median existing-home sales prices should rise about 2.8% this year and 2.2% next year, the realtors said in their monthly economic outlook. Median new-home prices are expected to rise 0.2% in 2006 and 2.4% in 2007.

Existing-home prices have risen at an average of 9.6% annually in the past four years. New-home prices rose 13.3% in 2004 and 9% in 2005.

"This year sales are slowing, homes are plentiful and sellers are negotiating," Lereah said. "Under these conditions, we'll probably see prices dip temporarily below year-ago levels as the market works through a build up in housing inventory."

Lereah said home prices typically appreciate at the rate of inflation, plus one or two percentage points. Buyers who plan to stay in their homes should see those gains, but "people who purchased last year with the intent of flipping are likely to get burned," he said.
Consumer prices excluding shelter costs have risen 4.4% in the past year.

The group is forecasting existing home sales to fall 7.6% in 2006 and a further 1.7% next year. New homes sales are expected to fall 16.1% in 2006 and 7.1% in 2007. Housing starts are projected to fall 9.6% this year and 9.8% next.

The forecasts are slightly below the group's projections from a month ago.

Compared with the group's forecasts at the beginning of the year, the expected declines in existing-home sales and housing starts for 2006 are about twice what was expected, and the expected drop in new-home sales for 2006 is about three times as severe. Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

Realtors expect home prices to fall

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home prices will probably fall temporarily as the housing market corrects, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.
Prices should bounce higher in a few months, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group "as the market works through a build in housing inventory."
Median existing-home sales prices should rise about 2.8% this year and 2.2% next year, the realtors said in their monthly economic outlook. Median new-home prices are expected to rise 0.2% in 2006 and 2.4% in 2007.
Existing-home prices have risen at an average of 9.6% annually in the past four years. New-home prices rose 13.3% in 2004 and 9% in 2005.
"This year sales are slowing, homes are plentiful and sellers are negotiating," Lereah said. "Under these conditions, we'll probably see prices dip temporarily below year-ago levels as the market works through a build up in housing inventory."
Lereah said home prices typically appreciate at the rate of inflation, plus one or two percentage points. Buyers who plan to stay in their homes should see those gains, but "people who purchased last year with the intent of flipping are likely to get burned," he said.
Consumer prices excluding shelter costs have risen 4.4% in the past year.
The group is forecasting existing home sales to fall 7.6% in 2006 and a further 1.7% next year. New homes sales are expected to fall 16.1% in 2006 and 7.1% in 2007. Housing starts are projected to fall 9.6% this year and 9.8% next.
The forecasts are slightly below the group's projections from a month ago.
Compared with the group's forecasts at the beginning of the year, the expected declines in existing-home sales and housing starts for 2006 are about twice what was expected, and the expected drop in new-home sales for 2006 is about three times as severe. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.