Wednesday, January 31, 2007

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Improves Slightly, But Expectations Soften

January 30, 2007

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in December, edged up slightly in January. The Index now stands at 110.3 (1985=100), up from 110.0 in December. The Present Situation Index increased to 133.9 from 130.5. The Expectations Index, however, declined to 94.5 from 96.3 last month.
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for January's preliminary results was January 23rd.
"This month's slight increase in confidence was solely the result of an improvement in the Present Situation Index, fueled primarily by a more favorable job market," says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Looking ahead, however, consumers are not as optimistic as they were in December. All in all, the Index suggests a moderate improvement in the pace of growth in early 2007."
Consumers' overall assessment of current-day conditions was more upbeat than in December. Those claiming conditions are "good" increased to 28.1 percent from 27.4 percent. Those saying conditions are "bad," however, rose to 16.5 percent from 14.9 percent. Labor market conditions also improved from last month. Consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" declined to 19.7 percent from 21.3 percent. Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" increased to 29.9 percent from 27.6 percent in December.
Consumers' outlook for the next six months was less optimistic than in December. Those anticipating business conditions to worsen edged up to 8.0 percent from 7.8 percent. Those expecting business conditions to get better decreased slightly to 16.2 percent from 16.7 percent.
The outlook for the labor market was mixed. Consumers expecting more jobs to become available in the coming months edged up to 14.0 percent from 13.9 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged up to 15.7 percent from 15.5 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase in the months ahead declined to 19.8 percent from 21.4 percent in December.
The next release is scheduled for February 27, Tuesday at 10 A.M. ET.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

Annual Percentage Rate / What is the Real Cost of Financing?

Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is a tool that consumers can use as a starting point to compare loan programs. However, it's important to keep in mind that APR is not a perfect system, and not all lenders calculate APR in the same way. While the Federal Truth-in-Lending Act does require any mortgage broker or lender to disclose APR to the consumer, there is no rule written in stone for calculating this number that each and every lender agrees upon.
The point of calculating APR is to let the consumer know what the actual cost of their financing is in the form of a yearly rate. APR factors in certain closing costs and fees associated with the loan, and spreads this total over the life of the loan along with the actual note rate. The objective is to give the consumer a clearer picture of what their actual costs are, and this inhibits lenders from hiding fees or upfront costs behind low interest rates in their advertising.
Fees that are generally included in the APR calculation are points, pre-paid interest, loan processing fees, underwriting fees, document preparation fees, and private mortgage insurance. On occasion, lenders will include a loan application fee and/or credit life insurance. Fees that are normally not included in the APR calculation are fees from Title, Escrow, attorney, notary, document preparation, home inspection, recording, transfer taxes, credit report and appraisal.
Remember, all lenders do not perform the calculation the same way. Moreover, APR does not consider the possibility of making pre-payments, moving or refinancing. Unless the interest rate is tied to a fixed instrument, APR is even more confusing. Calculating APRs on adjustable rate and balloon mortgages is more complex because we really have no way of knowing what future rates will be.
If all lenders calculated APR the same way, we could make easy comparisons when deciding on what loan program to go with. Since they don't, the consumer should know that APR is simply a starting point for comparison. They should rely on the skills of a well-versed loan professional to assist them in obtaining the loan that meets their specific needs. The more important things to consider are how long the loan is needed. What are the long-term goals of the borrower? If the homebuyer only expects to stay in the home for five years, there's not a lot of sense in looking exclusively at 30-Year Fixed rates because the APR seems more reasonable. If a young couple is buying a home, knowing they will refinance in eight years to pay for their son's college education, then once again, APR is not a realistic factor to take into consideration.
The Loan Executive should be prepared to answer questions about APR once the lender provides the Truth-in-Lending Disclosure Statement (Reg Z), such as why the “amount financed” listed in Box C is not the same as the actual loan amount, and why the APR is higher than the interest rate on the loan in most cases. The consumer will get a clear definition about the fees associated with their loan in the good-faith estimate, but the Truth-in-Lending Disclosure is often an area that is confusing to the borrower.

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Fed may have to cut rates...

The dollar sagged against major rivals on Tuesday (1/2/07), as investors fretted that the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates if the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing further.