Boom May Be Over, But Landing Will Be Soft

Boom May Be Over, But Landing Will Be Soft(May 19, 2006) -- WASHINGTON – The five-year boom in home sales may be over, but strong demographics and job growth promise only a short-term slowdown in most U.S. markets, NAR’s Chief Economist David Lereah told REALTORS® at Thursday’s Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum. His presentation took place during the 2006 REALTORS® Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.

Speculators and rising interest rates have ended the largest acceleration ever in existing-home prices, but the process is “a needed cleansing” that will help restore balance, said Lereah. Nationally, homes appreciated a remarkable 12.5 percent on average in 2005. Appreciation for 2006 will cool to 5.7 percent. But even with the slowdown, 2006 will be the fourth best year ever for residential real estate sales with an estimated 6.62 million existing homes sold, Lereah noted.

In 2007, Lereah expects to see existing-home sales rise slightly to 6.7 million units but appreciation to slow to 4.2 percent. To help the industry track performance, NAR’s Research Department is working to develop a real-time pricing tool, “a real estate ticker,” that will update national average home prices every 15 minutes based on data from MLSs, Lereah told the crowd.

To some degree, the next year or two will be “a tale of two cities,” said Lereah. Cities such as San Diego, Miami, and Naples, Fla., that have seen high price appreciation will see sharp drops in sales. Already, between first quarter 2005 and first quarter 2006, existing-home sales declined by 15 percent to 20 percent in Florida, California, and Arizona, he said.

On the other hand, markets that didn’t see exuberant appreciation during the boom are actually experiencing shorter days on market. Lereah pointed to Charlotte, Dallas, and St. Louis as examples of this trend. Even declining markets should remain healthy as long as they have diversified economies and strong job growth, he said.

“As long as days on the market don’t extend beyond six months, there’s no need to be concerned,” he said. The possible exception might be California, where a high number of adjustable-rate and interest-only mortgage loans might combine with a price downturn to create problems.

Other possible clouds on the real estate horizon: inflation, high oil prices, and rising interest rates. Yet, Lereah said he doesn’t expect a recession. Strong business spending and a sound economy that should grow 3.5 percent in 2006 promise a positive outlook for real estate. And mortgage interest rates should stay low; Lereah said he expects two more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2006, but rates won’t rise above 7 percent for the year.

“The real estate market got ahead of itself, but now we’re going back to fundamentals and a more balanced market,” he concluded.

— By Mariwyn Evans for REALTOR® Magazine Online