Monday, February 06, 2006

30 Year bond is back after 5 years.

After nearly a 5-year hiatus, the United States Department of the Treasury will reintroduce 30-year Treasury Bonds. On February 9th, 2006 the Long Bond will be up for auction. But many interest rate followers are fearful that the added supply of paper will cause overall bond prices to decline and home loan rates to rise. Are those fears justified? Let’s take a closer look.
Bonds are essentially a form of debt and are sold by companies and governments to raise money. In turn, an investor who purchases bonds receives a return on the investment in the form of interest payments. For example, let’s say the city where you live is proposing to build a new sports stadium but does not have the funds available for construction. They sell bonds in order to raise the funds needed.
The same goes for the government. When the government is in need of funds, they offer bonds to investors and pay interest over the life of the bond. The US uses Treasury Bills (maturity of 1-year or less), Notes (maturity of more than 1-year up to 10-years) and Bonds (maturity greater than 10-years) to raise cash.
Back in October of 2001, the US government suspended issuance of 30-year bonds due to a budget surplus. However, since 2001 the government has undergone many expenses (e.g., funding of the war in Iraq, and increased costs for Medicare and Medicaid) that require additional funding via sales of Treasury securities.
So, will the reintroduction of the long bond push home loan rates higher? Not materially. The reintroduction of the 30-year bonds was announced in August 2005 and it is likely that the market has already reflected this news. The amount to be auctioned is $14 Billion dollars…sounds like a lot, but a relatively small amount that should be easily absorbed. And even if rates blipped higher, it should be temporary.

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