LEADING INDEX SIGNALS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NEAR TERM

LEADING INDEX SIGNALS ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NEAR TERM
The U.S. leading index rose for the fourth consecutive month in January, increasing 1.1 percent to 140.1 (1996=100), The Conference Board recently reported. Six of the 10 indicators composing the leading index rose in December, including initial claims for unemployment insurance, real money supply, building permits, vendor performance, stock prices and interest rate spread. A key barometer of economic conditions, the leading index has increased in five of the last six months, suggesting economic growth is "likely to pick up in the near term," according to the report.The coincident and lagging indices, which reflect current and past economic activity, respectively, also increased in January. The coincident index edged up 0.2 percent to 121.7, while the lagging index rose 0.7 percent to 122.8.